Yields can be up to IPCA+ 7.84%. (Image: Getty Images/ Canva Pro)
The team of analysts at XP Investimentos selected five titles from fixed income to seek consistent returns, considering the current scenario of rising Brazilian interest rates and falling North American ones.
The recommended portfolio offers strategic diversification, with assets varied in terms of maturities, indexes, issuers and sectors, with the aim of reducing the overall risk of investors' portfolios.
Regarding choices, the house highlights that it is important to always pay attention to the profile of each investor, the term of the asset in relation to the objectives and the size of the allocation. “Especially for private credit, we do not recommend exposures to a single issuer greater than 1% to 3% of your allocation, the lower the risk of the security being lower.”
Among the suggestions, we highlight the public title Selic Treasurymaturing in March 2029. This bond is issued by the National Treasury and makes up the internal public debt.
According to analysts, this choice is mainly based on the scenario of rising interest rates, which XP's economic team sees as ending 2024 at a level of 11.75%.
Another highlight is the public title NTN-Bmaturing in August 2028, corrected by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA). This bond offers protection against inflation, with the principal adjusted over time.
“In our base scenario, we expect inflation to close 2024 at 4.4% and 2025 at 4.0%. We maintain a portion of assets linked to inflation as protection, especially due to the unpredictability of the inflationary trajectory in longer terms”, explain fixed income analysts at XP.
O NTN-Fdue in January 2027, is also included in the house's October selection. The bond is prefixed — that is, it is not linked to any index — and is a more beneficial option in scenarios where interest rates are expected to drop.
Among private credit assets, XP recommends the CBD Factswith a yield of 114% of the CDI and maturity in September 2026.
In private credit, the highlights are debenture and Energisa Paraíbadue in September 2033, and Jalles Machadodue in May 2034.
Analysts emphasize that changes in the fixed income portfolio do not mean the need to sell previously acquired securities. They remember that these assets must generally be held until maturity and that early sales, through mark-to-market, require caution.
Check out XP's fixed income recommendations
| Asset/Issuer | Indexer | Maturity | Ticker | Indicative Rate | Exempt from IR? | Taxa Gross-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selic Treasury | %Selic | 01/03/2029 | Selic + 0.1% | No | Selic + 0.1% | |
| NTN-B | IPCA+ | 15/08/2028 | IPCA+ 6.31% | No | IPCA+ 6.31% | |
| NTN-F | Prefixed | 01/01/2027 | 11,67% | No | 11,67% | |
| Energisa Paraíba Debenture | IPCA+ | 15/08/2028 | SAELA3 | IPCA+ 6.30% | Sim | IPCA+ 7.78% |
| Jalles Machado Debenture | IPCA+ | 17/10/2033 | JALL24 | IPCA + 6.10% | Sim | IPCA+7.84% |
It is worth remembering that the last two assets are exempt from Income Tax and, therefore, XP's Reserach team carries out a calculation that incorporates the tax burden into the sales price of a commodity to equate the income of one exempt title and another that is not. This rate is called gross-up.