O Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) discloses its decision to the Selic rate this Wednesday (18), around 6:30 pm (Brasília time). Today, the basic rate of fees is at the level of 10.50% per year.
The market expectation is that the Banco Central (BC) announces a new monetary tightening.
Copom options, contracts that allow the negotiation of rate variations, indicate that the BC should increase the Selic rate by 0.25 pp (R$77.50), but there are still those who consider a more hawkish (up 0.50 pp – R$ 15) or even more dovish (maintenance – R$ 7.75). The higher the price, the greater the number of investors who believe in each of the movements.
No Focus Bulletin Last week, in fact, economists consulted by the BC raised their bets for interest rates at the end of 2024 to 11.25%, predicting an increase of 0.25 pp at the September meeting.
O BTG Pactual — which also expects a more modest increase — highlights that the communication of Copom directors since the last meeting has evolved significantly, as has the performance of the economy.
Members already agreed on further upside risks to the inflation balance sheet, and have raised the tone in recent communications. On the data side, the GDP surprised, the labor market became tighter, signs of acceleration appeared IPCA on the margin and expectations remain unanchored.
5:20 p.m.
Ibovespa falls with Petrobras (PETR4) and awaiting a rise in the Selic rate; dollar falls to R$5.46 after interest rate cut in the US
A ‘Super Wednesday' finally arrived and confirmed part of the market's expectations. While investors await the decision on the Selic rate, the Ibovespa (IBOV) followed the pace abroad – which reacted to the 0.50 percentage point (pp) cut in US interest rates.
This Wednesday (18), the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange closed at down 0.90% to 133,747.69 points.
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17h09
**Ibovespa closes down 0.90% at 133,747.69 points
17h07
Wall Street closes lower on uncertainty over US economy after first interest rate cut since March 2020
Wall Street experienced a rollercoaster ride this Wednesday (18), with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision in the spotlight.
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.50 percentage points (pp), bringing the rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% per year.
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17h06
NY stocks fall after Fed cuts interest rates to the highest level
Wall Street experienced a rollercoaster ride this Wednesday (18), with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision in the spotlight.
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing the rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% per year.
Check out the closing of the New York indexes:
- S&P 500: -0.29%, at 5,618.26 points;
- Dow Jones: -0.25%, at 41,503.10 points;
- Nasdaq: -0.31%, at 17,573.30 points.
The New York stock exchanges rose almost 1% shortly after the Federal Reserve's decision. However, investors' sentiment cooled after statements by the chairman of the US central bank, Jerome Powell.
Furthermore, the magnitude of the interest rate cut brought back to the table uncertainties about the weakening of the world's largest economy.
17h03
Dollar falls for the 6th consecutive time and closes at R$5.46 with interest rate cut in the US and expectations about the Selic rate
O dollar spot (USDBRL) extended losses for the sixth consecutive trading session with attention focused on interest rate decisions in the United States and Brazil.
In comparison with the real, the US currency ended trading at R$ 5,4617 (-0.48%) this Wednesday (18).
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17h01
**Dollar closes at R$5.4617, down 0.48%
16h18
After Fed, Brazilian curve prices almost 100% chance of 25 basis point hike in Selic
The rates of DIs (Interbank Deposits)especially those with longer terms, increased their losses on Wednesday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve announce a 50 basis point cut in feesand not 25 basis points as much of the market expected.
Just like the yields of Treasuries, DI rates renewed the day's lows after the Fed announced an interest rate in the range of 4.75% to 5.00%.
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15h02
FOMC: Fed cuts US interest rates by 0.50 pp and sees rate at 4.4% by the end of 2024
The Federal Open Market Committee (Fomcin the English acronym) started the cycle of monetary easing in the USA (USA) and cut the fees reference by 0.50 percentage points this Wednesday (18).
The rate, which had been in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% since July 2023, was reduced to 4.75% to 5% per year. This is the first cut in more than four years, a period in which the US central bank imposed restrictive conditions to contain the inflation.
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