Expert says it is premature to assume that Copom will accelerate Selic rate hikes to 0.50 pp (Image: Agência Brasil)
The minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), released on Tuesday morning (24), maintained the tone hawkish already adopted in the statement and reiterated the modo data dependent. Last week, the monetary authority chose to raise the Selic by 0.25 percentage points (pp), to 10.75% per year.
As in the statement, the Committee gave no indication of the pace and total magnitude of the monetary tightening cycle.
In the minutes, the directors clarified that they unanimously agreed that the start of the cycle should be gradual. According to experts, this favors diligent monitoring of the data, but allows the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy to begin to act.
Sérgio Goldenstein, chief strategist at Warren Renasays that the direction of the Selic rate will depend on the evolution of inflation dynamics — especially the components most sensitive to economic activity and monetary policy —, inflation projections, expectations, the output gap and the balance of risks.
Will Copom accelerate the Selic rate hikes?
Despite the tone of the minutes, Goldenstein says it is premature to assume that the concerns listed by Copom will necessarily lead to an acceleration of the pace to 0.50 pp at the next meeting.
“In addition to the data-dependent mode, the real may appreciate further and, assuming everything else constant, the projection will fall as the remaining quarters of 2026 are incorporated into the relevant horizon of monetary policy, as the inflationary effects of the unanchoring of expectations and the exchange rate depreciation observed in the year are stronger for 2025 than for 2026”, he says.
According to him, negative surprises in activity and/or the labor market would significantly increase the probability of maintaining the pace established in the last decision.
“We continue with a call of three additional increases of 0.25 pp, taking the Selic rate to 11.50% in January of next year”, he states.
However, the chief strategist does not rule out the possibility of higher increases. “We recognize that the possibility of a more intense cycle has increased, particularly if the trajectory of the real does not contribute to the disinflation process and if activity and labor market indicators continue to show strong dynamism.”