(Image: iStock/Alfribeiro)
O Ibovespawhich seemed to be heading towards a sustainable increase after the good news of the upgrade of Brazil's rating by Moodysspilled the broth and collapsed this Thursday. The index closed down 1.45% at 131,583 points, according to preliminary data.
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The fall was widespread, driven mainly by Vale (ELECTION 3) and banks, such as Itaú (ITUB4) e Bradesco (BBDC4). Only nine assets closed higher.
The fall could even have been worse, had it not been for the high Petrobras (PETR4), which rose 1.09%. The action reflected the surge in oil. Brent contracts, used as a reference by the state-owned company, rose no less than 5% amid the conflict in Middle East.
According to analysts, the investor's 'brake' was pulled, in part, by the Brazilian inspector.
Earlier, the secretary of Treasure, Rogério Ceronsaid that the government is not using tricks to release extraordinary credits, outside the Budget, citing that the majority of these expenses relate to the catastrophe in Rio Grande do Sul.
The day before, Roberto Campos Neto stated that Brazil needs a program that generates a perception of a positive fiscal shock, if it wants to live with the Selic rate lower.
“Despite the upgrade of Brazil's rating by Moody's, which benefited several companies, investors continue to demand higher premiums to allocate capital in the country, which continues to put pressure on future interest rate curves”, says Anderson Silva, partner at GT Capital.
Geopolitical scenario
The market is also keeping an eye on developments in the tension between Israel e Iran.
According to the manager, war brings another component of risk, as it is capable of shaking any investment thesis based on economic premises.
An expressive and continuous increase in oilfor example, can 'hit' inflation, both in Brazil and in other countries, such as USA, where there is a period of rate cuts.
“As a large part of investors on the Brazilian stock exchange are foreigners, this factor is also included in the analyses, causing the IBOV to record another day of corrective movement, driven both by external issues (such as the conflict in the Middle East) and by the recovery the rise in interest rates in the domestic scenario”, he says.
For strategists BTG Pactualdespite the external scenario with falling interest rates and “soft landing” in USA and stimulus measures for Chinaongoing fiscal challenges are once again preventing Brazil from capturing the benefits of favorable momentum.
“Unfortunately, it appears that the country is missing another golden opportunity, especially as some of its key EM (emerging markets) peers face even more acute challenges,” they said in a report sent to clients.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.17%, Nasdaq fell 0.04% and Dow Jones closed down 0.44%.
Biggest rises and falls of Ibovespa
Among the biggest declines, the Let's go is highlighted.
Earlier, the company confirmed the hiring of Bradesco BBI to act as financial advisor to the Independent Committee in the Strategic Reorganization Operation, which will result in the creation of a new company listed on the B3.
At the beginning of the week, the Simpar (SIMH3) communicated its intention to separate itself from Vamos, which would only be responsible for leasing trucks, machinery and equipment, and combine the company's leasing arm with Automob, also a subsidiary of the company.
“The event still needs to be assimilated by investors until a more accurate assessment can be carried out”, says Anderson Silva.
Already the Assaí (ASAI3) extended the falls. Weighs against the company one Enrollment Term in the amount of R$ 1.3 billion issued by Federal Revenue.
Among the biggest increases, Natura led, possibly driven by the news that manager Baillie Gifford increased its stake in the company.
Furthermore, Petrobras e PetroReconcavo (RECV3) also stood out, with a significant increase due to the appreciation of oil in recent days, resulting from the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East.