Mining and oil companies recommended by analysts have recently fallen on the American stock market, but may rise again soon after interest rate cuts in the US (Images: Getty Images | Editing: Anna Zeferino)
The business week that ended last Friday (20) was encouraging in markets around the world, especially on the American stock exchange, after the Fed's (US Central Bank) decision to cut the US base interest rate by 0.5 percentage points – the first cut since 2020.
The S&P 500 index ended the week up 1.36%, at 5,700 points. On the Nasdaq, the weekly gain was 1.49%. For both indexes, most of this recovery came from Thursday morning, the day after the Fed's decision.
The drop in interest rates is favorable for an appreciation of securities listed on the stock exchange, and is understood as a good time to invest in risky assets.
But it is worth highlighting that it is important to proceed with caution, as not just any thesis or action makes sense in the end.
With this in mind, analyst Enzo Pacheco, from Empiricus Research, the BTG Pactual group's analysis firm, identified some good buying opportunities on the American stock exchange at this time, but looking at a specific sector: commodities.
Actions linked to commodities may be opportunities on the American stock exchange
The market of commodities is highly exposed to volatilities, especially due to geopolitical issues.
Some stocks in this sector recorded is left over this week even with the rise in indexes and the announcement of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, it is only a matter of time before these stocks join the rising wave. In other words, they are at an interesting point for buying, according to the analyst.
Following the criteria of looking for quality, cheap stocks with the potential to appreciate in value soon, Enzo mentioned two specific stocks on the Money Bets podcast last Wednesday (18). Let's see a summary below.
First opportunity on the American stock exchange: Barrick Gold (GOLD)
A Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD; B3: BARR34) is one of the world's leading gold mining companies. Its shares have been highly volatile this week, with a drop of around 1.7% overall since last Monday (16).
While Barrick shares fell, the average price of gold is on the rise, around US$ 2.6 thousand (around R$ 14 thousand). But there is a risk of profit-taking by investors – which could cause the price of gold to fall.
With that, Enzo states that he prefers to invest in the mining company rather than in himself. commodity in this short term:
“I like to bet on the mining company today, and not on gold. Because, at the end of the day, the company will continue to sell the main commodity at a good price and will generate results, cash and distribute dividends. (…) Even if (the price of gold) falls in the coming weeks, the company's results tend to be better in the next semester in the annual comparison.”
Second chance: oil company at an 'interesting' price, according to analyst
One international oil company has also seen its shares go through ups and downs over the past five days.
The price of a barrel of oil is falling, at around US$ 70 (around R$ 380). This is especially due to the economic problems in China, the world's largest oil importer, and the wars in the Middle East, the main “producing” region of the raw material.
The oil company in question is executing a plan to return resources to shareholders (payment of dividends), taking its dividend yield around 6%, and stated that it will continue with the plan unless oil prices fall to a level much lower than the current one.
Enzo stated that he “does not see room for the company’s shares to fall much”. With the interest rate cut, the dollar depreciates against other currencies, and “commodities traded in dollars see their prices rise, to compensate for this drop in the currency”. This is the case of oil, and this can benefit the oil company.
“For those who do not have shares (in this company), or do, but in a smaller position than suggested, the current price seems to have an interesting margin of safety”, stated Enzo.
Despite everything, it is a time for caution for the coming weeks on the stock market
Enzo says that the coming weeks require caution from investors.
We are still about a month away from the next earnings season (3Q24), so “we will have a period without news from companies” and, as a result, “a little more negative for the stock market”, according to the analyst. He added:
“October (also) tends to be a more volatile month in an American election year. We will be a little more cautious in the coming weeks.”
This specific moment reinforces the importance of following professional guidance when choosing which assets to buy. And the good news is that you can access Enzo Pacheco's recommendations for free to help you with this.
Discover all of Enzo Pacheco's recommendations for free
If you want to know all of Enzo Pacheco's recommendations on international stocks for this month, including the oil company mentioned in the text, just click here to check it out for free.
Enzo updates his recommended portfolio monthly with the 10 best buying opportunities on the American stock market. This is in accordance with the market situation and the best interests of those seeking profits from the stock market.
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