See 10 funds that pay more than the Selic on an average of three years. (Image: Getty Images/ Canva Pro)
As predicted by the market, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) announced this week the increase in the basic interest rate, Selic. The base rate of fees left the 10.50% level to 10.75% per year. With that, the Banco Central began a cycle of monetary tightening.
This time, the leaders emphasized that there was a reassessment of the gap towards the positive side. “The set of indicators of economic activity and the labor market has shown greater dynamism than expected,” they say in the decision document.
Communication has also changed in relation to inflation. The directors stated that the IPCA full as well as measures of underlying inflation were above target in the most recent releases.
What happens to the FIIs market in this scenario?
The increase in the Selic rate, in general, has an inverse correlation between interest rate and the value of real assets, since the rate is an important instrument in this market.
According to Tomaz de Gouvêa, real estate investment manager at MAG Investmentsthe upward cycle that is priced into the interest rate curve translates into both a higher cost of producing real estate for developers and a lower payment capacity and leverage for buyers. real estate.
“The increase in the Selic rate by 0.25% per year comes at a time when the real estate sector is increasingly relying on the capital market as a source of financing, with Real Estate Receivables Certificates (CRIs) market rates continue to show a growing share in the sector’s funding”, explains the professional.
In this way, Gouvêa assesses that the brick real estate funds — that is, those who invest directly in physical properties — may suffer from asset devaluation due to the higher opportunity cost, as more conservative, interest-indexed securities become more attractive.
However, there is another type of real estate fund that benefits from this rise: paper real estate fundsespecially those with exposure to CRIs em CDI. According to the manager, this asset class will have its income distribution benefited by the increase in interest rates.
Gouvêa also assesses, from an optimistic perspective, that if the upward cycle is short, as expected by MAG, the good indicators of the current real estate cycle could have their negative impact limited.
- See where to invest with the rise in Selic and the Fed cut; live on Giro do Mercado at 12pm, click to watch:
FIIs with dividend returns above Selic
With this scenario, the Money Times asked his columnist Einar Rivero, CEO of Elos Ayta Consulting and a specialist in financial market data, to evaluate real estate funds that have dividend returns above the current Selic rate.
Rivero analyzed the FII that make up the portfolio IFIX and drew a median over the last three years to understand which fund delivered more consistent results above the 10.75% level.
| Dividend Yield % 12 months as of September 18, 2024* | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Code | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Median |
| CACR11 | 16,46 | 16,46 | 15,84 | 15,84 |
| VSLH11 | 14,62 | 14,62 | 14,73 | 14,62 |
| DOSE 11 | 15,59 | 15,59 | 14,59 | 14,59 |
| RZAT11 | 17,77 | 17,77 | 14,41 | 14,41 |
| RZAK11 | 18,92 | 18,92 | 14,18 | 14,18 |
| URPR11 | 17,37 | 17,37 | 13,72 | 13,72 |
| ARRI11 | 16,27 | 16,27 | 13,56 | 13,56 |
| VGIR11 | 13,36 | 13,36 | 13,43 | 13,36 |
| BCR11 | 14,14 | 14,14 | 13,06 | 13,06 |
| HABT11 | 12,86 | 12,86 | 13,07 | 12,86 |
*In the table, there are only 10 real estate funds with a median dividend yield above the Selic rate.