USA created 254 thousand jobs in September, shows payroll (Image: COFFEEMEPLEASE/Pixabay)
O payroll above expectations in September indicates behavior in the North American labor market contrary to the trend of the last two months — when job creation fell more than expected.
Os USA (USA) created 254 thousand jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Another highlight is the 0.4% increase in salaries, maintaining the trend of reacceleration in the annual rate of 4%.
The data is in line with other US employment readings, released earlier this week. At Jolts, the number of vacancies rose from 7.711 million to 8.04 million between July and August and, in the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report, private sector positions went from 103 thousand to 143 thousand.
Inter's senior economist, André Valério, recalls that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has shown great concern about the job market, whose unemployment rate reached 4.3%.
This, according to Valério, triggered the Sahm Rule, which anticipates recessions in the American economy. However, this rule was never activated with unemployment claims so low. “Yesterday, unemployment insurance data indicates that 225,000 new insurance claims were requested, a level historically consistent with a healthy economy,” he says.
On the contrary, the economist states that the payroll does not present data that increases fears of an acute slowdown in the labor market. However, at the margin, the risk of an inflationary reacceleration increases, with wages on an upward trend.
“By the next Fomc meeting we will have the release of the payroll for October, which, given today's result, will be essential to define the next step of monetary policy. If it presents a strong reading like today, it would require a pause for the Fed to better assess the current context of the American economy, without incurring a great risk of inflationary reacceleration”.
Nomad's chief economist, Danilo Igliori, says that today's numbers reinforce the scenario that the soft landing is increasingly consolidated.
At the moment, interest contracts show that the vast majority bought the president's statements Jerome Powell which suggest two more cuts of 0.25 percentage points in interest rates by the end of the year.
After the release of the payroll, the portion of the market that expects a lower adjustment rose from 68.1% to 89%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.