(Image: Facebook/ Raízen)
A Raízen (RAIZ4), the world's largest sugarcane processor, is more concerned about next year's harvest (25/26), if the drought continues in the coming months, than about the possible impacts of the drought and fires on the current cycle, which is likely to reduce somewhat.
“My biggest concern is next year’s harvest. Whether the drought will last much longer. We are seeing what the weather will be like in November, December and January,” Raízen CEO Ricardo Mussa told Reuters after attending a seminar at the ROG.e trade fair in Rio de Janeiro.
He also recalled that the company's sugarcane fields were affected by the fires, but the impact on the current harvest (2024/25) was not that significant, at first.
“When there is burning, you are forced to harvest faster because the burned sugarcane loses its sucrose,” he explained.
The loss “has not yet been that significant”, he added, noting that if there is not enough rain in the coming months, which mark a period of greater humidity, productivity could fall in the areas affected by the fire and which were already in development for 2025/26.
“If there is no rain, then the impact of the fires will be even greater. Dry weather is threatening next year’s harvest, but it is still too early to say,” he said.
Regarding the current harvest, which should be collected by November, Mussa believes that Raízen may have to reduce its estimates a little, but avoided giving any figures.
“We are looking at a slightly lower number. It is the smaller impact of the fire and more of the drier weather,” he said, noting that new guidance should come out in mid-October.
Asked whether it will remain within the projected range — between 82 million and 85 million tons of sugarcane in the crop year that began in April — he said it will depend on what the “weather is showing now.”
“For now, we are not changing the guidance, but in October we will review it. It is not at the top, it is more towards the bottom.”
In a statement published on August 26, the company reported that approximately 1.8 million tons of its own sugarcane and that of suppliers were affected by the fires in the sugarcane fields of São Paulo. The amount represents 2% of the total forecast for the 2024/25 harvest.