For Caio Araujo, real estate fund analyst at Empiricus, the fall in Ifix was exaggerated and the index could “turn things around” in the 4th quarter of the year; see the most promising FIIs to invest in. (Image: Shutterstock)
Os real estate funds They didn't have an easy month in September. THE Ifixthe main market index FIIrecorded a decline of -2,58% in the period, the biggest monthly drop in the last 2 years, since November 2022.
And anyone who thinks that the main “villain” of this story was the high Selicthe Brazilian basic interest rate. Although it also contributed to the negative performance of the index, the FII analyst Caio Araujofrom Empiricus, attributed another culprit to the drop in Ifix.
For him, although the rise in interest rates had its impact, it had already been priced and absorbed by real estate funds since August. Therefore, the point he treats as the main culprit of this loss was the disclosure of the bimonthly income and expense report in Brazil, which deals with the budget of the country.
The report was poorly received not only by FIIs, but by the capital market as a whole. This is because it has a direct influence on tax issue Brazilian and, consequently, in the yield curveespecially the long tip.
In other words, the deception market with the government's revenue and expenditure projection for 2024 increased the yield curve premium futures, worsening the scenario for risk taking in Brazil, which includes assets listed in iflike the FII.
However, in Araujo’s view, “it was an exaggerated fall”. In an interview with Market Turna program produced by Money Timeshe stated that this movement can even be seen as a opportunity for investors.
Below, I explain why the analyst believes that FIIs can still perform well until the end of the year – and what are the 5 most promising to invest now, in his opinion.
How real estate funds can 'turn things around' by the end of the year
According to Araujo, if we look at seasonality, September tends to be a more difficult month for the capital markets. This is the period in which the budgetan expensive matter for the current government, as the income and expenditure report showed.
But we also had other factors which prevented the good performance of assets listed on the stock exchange. The beginning of interest rate rise cycle in Brazil and the growing conflict in Middle East they also influenced investors’ risk taking. In addition, of course, to the distrust surrounding the inspector.
These factors caused not only the Ifix to decline, but the Ibovespa as well, with a drop of -3.08% in September. However, for the analyst, we can see a positive performance for FIIs throughout the 4th quarter. And the reason is this…
If we look at Ifix's performance, we see that it has had an average return of 5% in the 4th quarter of the last 5 years. And the analyst believes that this trend could repeat itself in 2024. “Whoever leaves now may be leaving at a bad time,” he says.
Furthermore, he highlights that, although the index's performance was frustrated, this does not mean that we did not have good results in September. Proof of this was the Kinea Securities (KNSC11) which, in September, had one of the three best performances of the month among real estate funds. Check out the ranking prepared by the FII Club:
“There is options that can generate value for your portfolio even in times of risk aversion, like the one we experienced in September”, explains the analyst.
Araujo's recommended portfolio of real estate funds included KNSC11 among the recommendations for the month. And, although it also delivered a negative performance, of -1.49%, the portfolio was better than Ifix and is positive for the year.
By way of comparison, while Ifix accumulates an increase of 4.76% this year, Araujo's portfolio increases almost doublewith positive performance of 9,42% em 2024.
And, due to his favorable perception for the end of the year, the analyst said he chose to do not make changes in the portfolio for October. “In a team that is winning, you don’t move,” he joked.
Now the good news is that you can get to know this wallet completely free of charge. Just click on the link below and grant your access:
Free portfolio: discover the 5 most promising real estate funds for October, according to Caio Araujo
Every month, Caio Araujo “searches” the stock market in search of real estate funds with the greatest potential at the moment and recommends them to investors. The objective is to find FIIs that combine:
- A good payment dividends;
- Good potential for appreciation of shares on the stock exchange.
For him, given the current scenario, with higher interest rates, this is the big advantage of investing in real estate funds: seeking returns greater than those of fixed income – which becomes more attractive in periods like this – with the combination of these two potential profits.
Bearing all this in mind, in October, the portfolio continues with a sectoral allocation more concentrated in creditwhich is more favorable in the face of higher interest rates. Furthermore, Caio highlights that some Brick FIIs they are attractive now and are also recommendations.
“If the investor does not have one yet, a reinforcement of their position in Alianza Trust Renda Imobiliária (ALZR11), one FII of tijolos with a portfolio 100% in atypical contracts, high fines and long deadlines, with very good predictability, less volatile than the market average”, he recommends.
But of course this is just one of the analyst's recommendations now. You can know the complete portfolio for free, enough register with this link.
Araujo's real estate fund portfolio was made available by Money Times as a courtesy to readers. In other words, you don't have to pay anything to access all indications and analyst investment theses.
Therefore, I suggest that you at least take a “look” at the indications. Then you can decide if they really make sense for your assets: