ibovespa (Image: Disclosure/B3)
Analysts bring their point of view on the main financial assets and how they may move given their price behavior and recent events.
The futures contract Ibovespa index on the chart of 60 minutes, reached the average of 200 periods, but was unable to surpass it. Now, it is breaking an ascending trend line, which could signal an acceleration in the decline, especially if it breaks the 132,850 point region accompanied by a significant increase in volume.
The support region of 132,850 points is crucial and can be seen in the following image, the target is the 50% Fibonacci point, 131,150.
By Igor Silva
The current macroeconomic scenario is marked by an escalation in geopolitical tensions, especially between Iran and Israel. This situation increased risk aversion among investors, resulting in significant declines in the main US indices, including the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Additionally, a port strike on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast is disrupting half of the country's shipping flow, adding more uncertainty to the economic outlook.
Domestically in the US, the job market continues to show signs of strength. The JOLTS report indicated a rise in job openings to 8.04 million in August, exceeding economists' estimates. This suggests that the US economy is still buoyant, although manufacturing activity has shown signs of slowing, with the ISM index reading 47.2 in September, below expectations.
Traders are paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, robust labor market data suggests the Fed may delay that decision. The Fed's next steps will be crucial in determining the direction of markets. Additionally, recent comments from Fed officials, including Jerome Powell, indicate a possible reduction of up to 50 basis points by the end of the year, depending on consumer spending behavior and income growth.
The global situation, combined with a stable domestic job market, adds complexity to the scenario, making the next few days critical for investors to assess the impact of these events on the markets.
On the 1-hour chart, the S&P 500 has broken out of a rectangle, signaling a change in trend. The price is below the 144-period moving average (orange line), indicating possible stronger selling pressure. Fibonacci projections have been plotted and highlight support levels at 127.20% (5,684.86) and 161.80% (5,662.14), which could act as targets for speculators who are short and zones of interest for buyers .
The oscillator at the bottom of the chart shows a divergence starting the move, followed by a breakout suggesting the strength of the downtrend.
The breakout of the rectangle, added to the unstable macroeconomic scenario, contributes to selling pressure on the S&P 500. The support levels identified by the Fibonacci extensions (5,684.86 and 5,662.14) are critical points to be monitored. If prices fail to stabilize at these levels, the downward movement could extend.
By ActivTrades
A gold price continues to decline from last week's all-time highs during early trading this Monday. However, the decline appears limited as the precious metal remains just below levels reached last Thursday. Gold recorded substantial gains in September, with prices rising more than 6%.
A key factor driving this trend is the Federal Reserve's increasingly accommodative stance, which has raised expectations of a possible 50 basis point cut at the November meeting. This outlook is negative for the dollar and Treasury bond yields, creating a favorable environment for non-yielding assets such as gold.
The slight decline in prices in the last two sessions hardly signals the beginning of a new trend, the recent announcement of a large stimulus package by the Chinese authorities has increased risk appetite, representing an obstacle to the appreciation of gold. However, with Powell's speech scheduled for today, there is potential for gold to regain its upward momentum, especially if the Fed chairman maintains the dovish tone of his last speech, which raised market expectations for a 50-point cut. base in November.
Disclaimer: The analyzes presented here are only studies. They are not investment recommendations, neither buying nor selling, nor do they reflect the opinion of the media vehicle in which they are being published. These are studies aimed at people with knowledge and experience in the financial market.