Ibovespa opens down on Monday, 23 (Image: REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli)
O Ibovespa (IBOV) opened trading this Monday (23) in decline. The main index of the Brazilian stock exchange slowed 0.33%, to 130,624 points, around 10:04 am.
The dollar soared against the real in early trading this Monday, hovering around R$5.60 again.
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5 things to know when investing in Ibovespa this Monday (23)
Selic at 11.50% and inflation at 4.37%: economists increase bets on Focus
The economists consulted by Banco Central raised the stakes for the inflation this year for the tenth time, from 4.35% to 4.37%, according to the Focus Bulletin this Monday (23).
For 2025 and 2026, expectations for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) rose to 3.97% and 3.62%, respectively, and remain at 3.50% for 2027.
The projection for Selic at the end of 2024 it was raised again, to 11.50%. The estimates for 2024, 2026 and 2027 remained stable and interest rates are expected at levels of 10.50%, 9.50% and 9%, respectively.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in turn, should close 2024 at around 3% — previously, the forecast was 2.96%. In the following years, the country's growth should be 1.90%, 2% and 2%.
Finally, projections for the dollar in this and the next three years they remained at R$5.40, R$5.35, R$5.30 and R$5.30, respectively.
USA: 'Let the games begin'
Nos USAafter a positive Thursday (19) in the wake of the first interest rate cut of this cycle, last Friday (20) was marked by significant volatility, due to the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures and other derivatives — a phenomenon known as “triple witchcraft“.
According to Matheus Spiess, analyst at Empiricus Researchthis movement generated an impressive volume of trading, with approximately 19.8 billion shares changing hands on the NYSE, Nasdaq, NYSE American and NYSE Arca exchanges.
“For comparison, the average volume in 2024 has been approximately 11 billion shares per day. This high level of activity was notable, especially on a day with few economic reports or notable corporate results,” he points out.
The decision of the Federal Reserve on interest is still being assimilated by investorswith heated debates both among those who support the cut and among those who view it with skepticism.
For the analyst, the comments from Fed officials fueled both sides of the discussion.
Santos Brasil (STBP3): Opportunity sells 48% stake to French company CMA for R$6.33 billion
The manager Opportunityholder of approximately 48% of the shares of Santos Brazil (STBP3), divested itself of its entire stake in the company, selling it to the French company CMA CGM, according to a document sent to the market on Sunday (22).
The transaction set the price at R$15.30 per STBP3 share, representing a premium of 20.4% over the closing price on Friday (20), of R$12.71. The company's market value is R$11 billion.
The established value corresponds to an aggregate price of R$6.33 billion, paid in cash, but subject to positive and negative adjustments until the conclusion of the deal.
PBoC stimulus?
O People's Bank of China (PBoC), surprised markets on Sunday (22), by reducing its 14-day repurchase rate by 10 basis points, just days after frustrating investors by keeping long-term interest rates unchanged.
The move comes amid rising tensions, according to Matheus Spiess, with the US Commerce Department poised to announce rules that could ban the use of Chinese- and Russian-made hardware and software in connected vehicles.
“Citigroup’s expansion plans in China are facing challenges due to a hurdle imposed by US regulators, after the Federal Reserve penalized the bank for failures in data management and risk controls. Given this scenario, investors are now expecting more economic stimulus from China,” he points out.
However, it reiterates that it is still unclear how effective monetary policy will be in addressing the current Chinese consumer apathy, “which appears to be more influenced by uncertainty about the future than by a credit shortage.”
Even so, this action represents a first step towards a possible change in the economic trajectory.
For the analyst, a rescue package for China's real estate sector may be the most promising element to put the country back on the path to growth, approaching the 5% expansion target.
“For this to happen, it is essential that this package is implemented efficiently, especially considering that the crisis in the real estate sector is expected to persist for the next five years,” he concludes.
Vale (VALE3) brings forward its mandate and Gustavo Pimenta will take over in October
The mandate of the new CEO of Vale (ELECTION 3), Gustavo Pepperwas brought forward to start on October 1st and no longer in January, as planned, shows a relevant fact sent on the night of last Friday (20).
In the document, the company thanked Eduardo Bartolomeo, who had been at the helm of the company since 2019.
“Under Eduardo’s leadership, Vale has managed to make significant progress in its cultural transformation, with a focus on the safety of people and operations, risk management and asset integrity,” he says.
Furthermore, the company highlights that it has adopted a pioneering dam decommissioning program, implementing the best global standards for the management of tailings containment structures.
*With information from Reuters