Ibovespa opens higher this Friday, 27th (Image: Money Times)
O Ibovespa (IBOV) opened trading this Friday (27) on a high. The main Brazilian stock market index rose 1.08%, to 133,009 points, at around 10:03 am.
The dollar in cash was slightly lower against the real in the first negotiations this Friday, affected by the continued appetite for risk abroad, following the promises of new economic stimulus measures in China.
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5 things to know when investing in Ibovespa this Friday (27)
PCE: US inflation accelerates 0.1% in August and goes to 2.2% in one year
The price index (PCE) of the USA (USA) rose 0.1% in August, as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In one year, the PCE was 2.2% and remains above the 2% target pursued by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
And he went up inflation last month comes after an increase of 0.2% in July. Until that month, the index accumulated an increase of 2.5% in 12 months.
Monthly and annual variations were below market projections, of 0.2% and 2.3%, respectively.
Oil: 'Is there a chance of a ceasefire?'
This morning (27), the oil shows signs of recovery after a sharp drop yesterday, when the price of a barrel fell by more than 1%, falling below US$72.
According to Matheus Spiess, analyst at Empiricus Researchthe recent devaluation was driven by the announcement that the Saudi Arabia plans to increase its production from December, a decision that could put even more pressure on prices.
“The world's largest oil exporter is distancing itself from its unofficial target of keeping a barrel at around US$100, marking a significant change in the strategy of OPEC+, which had been cutting production since 2022 to support the market”, he points out. .
For the analyst, the motivation behind this strategic change is the Saudi attempt to recover its market share, even though it knows that it needs prices between US$90 and US$100 per barrel to balance its budget.
“Frustration with the lack of commitment of some OPEC members to adhere to production cuts also influenced this decision”, he ponders.
Furthermore, the expectation of an increase in oil supply from Libya contributed to the review of market projections, which until then were optimistic due to the recent monetary stimulus measures adopted by the China.
Brazil: 'There is no way to escape the monetary squeeze'
Here, the market continues to reflect the Quarterly Inflation Reportreleased yesterday (27), as well as the statement that accompanied the decision of the Copom last week, and the minutes of the meeting published on Tuesday (24). The report reinforced the tone hawkish (contrarian) do Banco Central.
However, Matheus Spiess points out that this did not prevent the Ibovespa to achieve its highest level in one week, driven by investor optimism with the Chinese government's promises of new economic stimulus, which especially benefited commodity-linked stocks.
“The scenario is becoming increasingly clear in relation to the monetary tightening cycle in Brazil, which should take the Selic rate to 12%, or even above that, as some financial institutions have already started to predict”, he says.
The Inflation Report, for example, brought estimates that the IPCA will remain outside the target until at least the beginning of 2027, when it should reach 3.2%. For the 12 months up to the second quarter of 2026, the BC projects inflation of 3.5% — the same value estimated for the current relevant horizon of monetary policy, which is the first quarter of 2026.
This signals that it will be necessary a higher Selic rate than expected by the market (in addition to what was pointed out in the Focus report) to bring inflation back to the target.
“Although I believe that the Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates, I remain somewhat skeptical about the intensity of this tightening. I am not convinced by the projections that point to the Selic at 13% at the beginning of next year as the end point of the upward cycle”, he states.
For the analyst, there are still many variables at play until then, especially with regard to the continued fall in interest rates in developed economies (notably, the USA), the implementation of new spending containment measures by the government — the next Assessment of primary revenues and expenses will be released at the end of November (22nd) — and the tendency for the real to strengthen.
Vale (VALE3) clarifies where it stands with Aliança Energia
A Vale (ELECTION 3) sent a statement to the market clarifying that it continues to search for potential partners for the Energy Generation Alliance. However, at this time, there is no binding instrument or decision made regarding who the potential partner will be, or their capital structure.
The mining company's statement comes after news circulated in the media stating that the company would be moving forward with the operation.
According to the mining company, the increased stake in the company is an important step towards the creation of an energy platform, which will potentially include other assets in its portfolio.
Prio (PRIO3) acquires 40% of the Peregrino field in Rio de Janeiro for US$ 1.9 billion
A Prio (PRIO3) informed the market that it signed this Friday (27) a purchase and sale agreement with SPEP Energy and Sinochem for the acquisition of the Asian company's 40% stake in Pilgrim's fieldin Rio de Janeiro.
According to the document, the new consortium will be formed by Equinoroperator of the Field with a 60% stake, and by the oil company, with 40%. The acquisition has a value of US$1.9 billion, with US$191.5 million paid at the signing of the contract and a further US$1.72 billion paid at the conclusion of the transaction.
The company and its subsidiaries also had US$632 million in tax losses on December 31, 2023, says the material fact. The conclusion of the deal is subject to the usual precedent conditions for this type of transaction, such as approval by the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (Cade) e waiver or expiration of the term of the acquisition right by Equinor within 30 days.
*With information from Reuters