Analyst says that concentration in big techs will not always be positive; companies in other sectors may show greater appreciation with the fall in interest rates (Image: iStock.com/pressureUA | Editing: Anna Zeferino)
“Super Wednesday” is here: today (18) the Fed (US Central Bank) will announce the new American basic interest rate to the world.
The market's almost unanimous expectation is that, for the first time since 2020, the Fed will announce an interest rate cut, pointing to a more balanced inflation expectation in the United States.
There is also fear that the cut, depending on its intensity, could signal fears of a recession.
A scenario of falling interest rates has historically proven to be favorable for investing in risky assets, such as stocks, and raises new theories for the future of the American stock market.
American stock indexes performed well even during the period of high interest rates, but this was because they were “carried” by technology companies linked to artificial intelligence. With emphasis on Nvidia and its increase of around 170% in 2024 alone.
In this case, the Artificial Intelligence thesis proved attractive in itself, even in a more contractionary economic scenario. But now, with the (almost certain) drop in interest rates, does the narrative remain the same? Should investors still focus on big techs?
According to this analyst, lower interest rates could be a chance for other companies to shine – we will understand below.
Analyst opinion: favorable moment for sector diversification in American stocks
The September edition of the program Where to Investfrom Seu Dinheiro (a news portal partner of Money Times), received analyst Enzo Pacheco, from Empiricus Research, the analysis house of the BTG Pactual group.
In his opinion, this may “finally” be the time to diversify your portfolio and reduce your exposure to technology stocks:
“The dynamic, until then, was that you should bet on technology companies, (…) and then your portfolio would be very positive. But we know that concentration in a few sectors (…) can be positive at one point, but (when) it ends up 'turning' negative, it will also (…) give back a good part of your gains.”
According to the analyst, the trend is for companies considered traditional that “fell behind” at the beginning of the year will appreciate from now on, to the detriment of those that have already appreciated a lot – as is the case with big techs.
Traditional US stocks would excel even in a recession, analyst says
According to Enzo Pacheco, even if the American economy is at risk of recession (which is not the Fed's opinion), the moment would still be favorable for companies in “traditional” sectors of the economy.
This is because their shares are cheap and have an attractive safety margin, which would not allow room for very significant falls – unlike technology companies.
Which stocks to start investing in on the American stock market today?
If you want to start investing in the American stock market, but don't know where to start, know that Enzo prepares a monthly recommended portfolio of international stockstaking into account market moments and what makes sense for each phase.
For this month, for example, Enzo has already put into practice the thesis shared in the program: he reduced the portfolio's exposure to some big techsbut decided to increase exposure to stocks:
- From traditional sectors of the economy;
- Good dividend payers – in hard currency;
- Com valuation cheap.
The main thesis remains to look for quality assets, which are at a good price, and with potential for appreciation in the near future.
And if you want to know the assets selected by Enzo Pacheco, you can – and for free.
Discover the 10 best international stocks to invest in September
Your Money is making available, as a courtesyEnzo's recommended portfolio with the 10 best international stocks to buy today.
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