Future interest rates advance in the shorter and intermediate vertices with the Selic decision and a more aggressive statement from Copom (Image: Canva Pro)
Os future interest began the session this Thursday (19) with a strong rise in short and medium maturities in reaction to the more aggressive tone of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) in the announcement of the decision on interest rates.
Yesterday (18), Copom unanimously decided to raise the Selic rate by 25 basis points, to 10.75% per year, kicking off a 'mini-cycle' of monetary tightening.
In the statement, the board stated that “the scenario, marked by resilience in activity, pressures in the labor market, a positive output gap, rising inflation projections and unanchored expectations, demands a more contractionary monetary policy.”
Furthermore, the BC did not give any indication of what it will do at the next meeting (forward guidance), leaving the market clueless about the pace and size of the new 'mini-cycle' of monetary tightening.
Today, financial agents are adjusting their positions with part of their bets for a larger increase, of 50 basis points, in the Selic rate at the next Copom meeting, in November.
The Interbank Deposit (DI) rate for January 2025 opened at 10.98% compared to the previous adjustment of 10.94%. The DI rate for January 2027 jumped to 11.99% at the opening, from 11.80% at the adjustment the day before.
Longer DIs started with a slight decline. The DI rate for January 2033 started the session at 11.95% compared to 11.97% in the previous adjustment. Follow in Real Time.
Check out the opening of the DIs:
| CODE | NAME | OPENING | PREVIOUS SETTING |
| DI1F25 | IN Jan/25 | 10,98% | 10,94% |
| DI1F26 | ON Jan/26 | 11,92% | 11,77% |
| DI1F27 | ON Jan/27 | 11,90% | 11,80% |
| DI1F28 | IN Jan/28 | 11,97% | 11,88% |
| DI1F29 | ON Jan/29 | 12,00% | 11,96% |
| DI1F30 | IN Jan/30 | 12,00% | 12,00% |
| DI1F31 | ON Jan/31 | 11,99% | 12,00% |
| DI1F32 | IN Jan/32 | 11,96% | 11,97% |
| DI1F33 | IN Jan/33 | 11,95% | 11,97% |
In the United States, yields on US Treasury bonds are rising. Projected interest rates for the 2-year T-note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, started the day at 3.629%, compared to 3.603% at the previous close.
The 30-year T-note, which is a benchmark for the North American mortgage market, was up 4.031% at the opening, compared to 4.008% at the previous day's close.
Last Wednesday (18), the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 0.50 percentage points (pp), to 4.75% to 5.00%. The magnitude of the reduction was in line with market expectations, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
This was the first reduction since March 2020 and marks the beginning of the monetary easing cycle in the world's largest economy.