Fed Chair says interest rates will reach neutral level “over time” (Image: Federal Reserve/ Flickr)
The economy of USA should show a continuous deceleration of the inflationwhich will allow the Federal Reserve reduce your basic interest rate and, “over time”, it reaches a level that is no longer holding back activity, said this Monday the Fed chair, Jerome Powellin comments that showed no obvious trend toward a faster or slower pace of rate cuts.
“Disinflation has been widespread, and recent data indicates further progress toward a sustained return to 2%,” the level of inflation targeted by the Fed, Powell said in remarks prepared for a National Business Economics Association conference.
“If the economy generally evolves as expected, monetary policy will move toward a more neutral stance over time,” Powell said. “But we are not on a course set in advance. The risks are on both sides, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”
The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting, lowering the range from 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest in 20 years and which had been maintained for 14 months, to the current range of 4.75% to 5.00%.
The economic projections released at this meeting showed that the authorities' median expectation that the rate will fall further to the range of 4.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year, to the range of 3.25% to 3. 50% by the end of 2025, with monetary easing ending in 2026 with base interest rates around the estimated long-term “neutral” level of 2.9%.
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However, investors are divided over whether the U.S. central bank will embark on a series of 25 percentage point cuts now or whether it might be pushed to make another big cut if the job market weakens or inflation slows more than expected. expected.
Powell's reference to risks “on both sides,” however, points to an open debate as the data accumulates, with Friday's release of the September jobs report being the first of two major job market reports. work the Fed will receive before the November 6-7 meeting.
The latest inflation data showed a rate of just 2.2%, close to the Fed's target, while the core index, which does not include food and energy costs, is stagnant at around 2.6% to 2 .7% four months ago.
Powell, however, said he thinks “general economic conditions … set the stage for more disinflation.”
Prices of goods have been falling, while the services sector, whose prices were previously difficult to hold, is now pointing to inflation “close to its pre-pandemic pace,” Powell said.
Progress on housing inflation has been “slow,” the Fed chief said, but “the rate of growth in rents charged to new tenants remains low. As long as this is the case, housing services inflation will continue to decline.”
The job market remains “solid,” he said, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% still at a low level and close to what Fed officials consider sustainable over the long term with inflation at the central bank's target.
“Overall, the economy is solid; we intend to use our tools to keep it that way,” Powell said, adding that the Fed has made “good progress” in reducing inflation without a sharp rise in unemployment.