Economists raise Selic projection to 11.75% in 2024; see this Monday’s Focus (30) – Money Times

The economists consulted by the Banco Central raised the stakes for Selic at the end of this year from 11.50% to 11.75%, according to the Focus Bulletin this Monday (30). Estimates for 2025 also rose from 10.50% to 10.75%.

For 2026 and 2027, projections remained stable and interest rates are expected at levels of 9.50% and 9%, respectively.

Now for the inflationthe expectation for 2026 was cut from 3.62% to 3.60%. For 2024, 2025 and 2026, the bets for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) remain at respective 4.37%, 3.97% and 3.50%.

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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in turn, had an adjustment in 2025 and should reach 1.92% — previously, the estimate was 1.90%. In other years, the country's growth should be 3%, 2% and 2%.

Finally, projections for the dollar in this and the next three years they remained at R$5.40, R$5.35, R$5.30 and R$5.30, respectively.

Focus Report this Monday (30)

Inflation

• 2024: remains at 4.37%
• 2025: remains at 3.97%
• 2026: from 3.62% to 3.60%
• 2027: remains at 3.50%

GDP

• 2024: remains at 3.00%
• 2025: from 1.90% to 1.92%
• 2026: remains at 2%
• 2027: remains at 2%

Selic

• 2024: from 11.50% to 11.75%
• 2025: from 10.50% to 10.75%
• 2026: remains at 9.50%
• 2027: remains at 9%

Dollar

• 2024: remains at R$5.40
• 2025: remains at R$5.35
• 2026: remains at R$5.30
• 2027: remains at R$5.30

The markets this morning

This morning's highlight is China. The country's stock indexes notched their biggest daily gains in 16 years, with A-shares posting the most volume ever, as investors took part in an intense hunt for risky assets sparked by Beijing's latest stimulus measures.

Many investors, fearful of missing out on the wave of gains ahead of the weeklong holiday beginning Tuesday, helped the CSI300 index close 8.48% higher, taking its five-day advance to more than 25% — the most strong record.

Shanghai's SSEC index registered a total trading volume of 1.17 trillion yuan ($166.84 billion) and rose 8.06%.

Asian bags

• Japan/Nikkei: -4.80%
• Hong Kong/Hang Seng: +2,43%
• China/Shanghai: +8.06%

European stock exchanges (open market)

• Londres/FTSE100: -0,68%
• Frankfurt/DAX: -0,64%
• Paris/CAC 40: -1,74%

Wall Street (futures market)

• S&P 500: -0,25%
• Dow Jones: -0,18%
• Nasdaq: -0,34%

Commodities

• Oil/WTI: -0.40%, to US$ 67.91 per barrel
• Oil/Brent: -0.72%, at US$ 71.46 per barrel

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin (BTC): -3,09%, a US$ 63.802,0
• Ethereum (ETH): -1,15%, a US$ 2.621,54

Happy Monday and keep an eye on Money Times for market news!