Economists raise bets on inflation and Selic (Image: REUTERS/Adriano Machado)
The economists consulted by Banco Central raised the stakes for the inflation this year for the ninth time, from 4.35% to 4.37%, according to the Focus Bulletin this Monday (23).
For 2025 and 2026, expectations for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) rose to 3.97% and 3.62%, respectively, and remain at 3.50% for 2027.
The projection for Selic at the end of 2024 it was raised again, to 11.50%. The estimates for 2024, 2026 and 2027 remained stable and interest rates are expected at levels of 10.50%, 9.50% and 9%, respectively.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in turn, should close 2024 at around 3% — previously, the forecast was 2.96%. In the following three years, the country's growth should be 1.90%, 2% and 2%.
Finally, projections for the dollar in this and the next three years they remained at R$5.40, R$5.35, R$5.30 and R$5.30, respectively.
Focus Report for this Monday (23)
Inflation
- 2024: from 4.35% to 4.37%
- 2025: from 3.95% to 3.97%
- 2026: from 3.61% to 3.62%
- 2027: remains at 3.50%
GDP
- 2024: from 2.96% to 3.00%
- 2025: remains at 1.90%
- 2026: remains at 2%
- 2027: remains at 2%
Selic
- 2024: from 11.25% to 11.50%
- 2025: remains at 10.50%
- 2026: remains at 9.50%
- 2027: remains at 9%
Dollar
- 2024: remains at R$5.40
- 2025: remains at R$5.35
- 2026: remains at R$5.30
- 2027: remains at R$5.30
What to expect from Ibovespa?
In a busy week for monetary policy decisions, the Ibovespa (IBOV) reacted to opposing decisions on interest rates in Brazil and the United States.
Finally, the index closed trading last Friday (20) at 131,065.44 points and accumulated a drop of 2.84% in the week. The fall was driven by local caution, with high interest rates remaining for longer.
This morning, the futures of Wall Street and European stock markets were mixed, while Asia closed higher.
The markets this morning
Asian stock markets
- Hong Kong/Hang Seng: -0,06%
- China/Shanghai: +0.44%
European stock exchanges (open market)
- Londres/FTSE100: -0,14%
- Frankfurt/DAX: -0,24%
- Paris/CAC 40: +0,53%
Wall Street (futures market)
- S&P 500: +0,09%
- Dow Jones: +0,02%
- Nasdaq: +0,15%
Commodities
- Oil/WTI: +0.49%, at US$ 71.35 per barrel
- Oil/Brent: +0.40%, at US$ 71.35 per barrel
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin (BTC): +1,19%, a US$ 63.602,0
- Ethereum (ETH): +2,48%, a US$ 2.645,34
Happy Monday and keep an eye on Money Times for the latest market news!