The dollar followed the performance abroad and also lost strength against the real with inflation in the United States and the unemployment rate in Brazil (Image: Getty Images/ Canva Pro)
O dollar in cash (USDBRL) extended the previous day's losses and closed in negative territory for the second consecutive time. The US currency reflected data on inflation in the United States and employment in Brazil.
In comparison with the real, the North American currency ended negotiations at R$ 5,4361 (-0,16%). During the week, the dollar fell 1.54% against the real.
Performance followed the trend seen abroad. The DXY indicator, which compares the dollar to a basket of six global currencies, closed slightly down 0.31%.
What moved the dollar today?
The dollar lost strength on a day busy with local and foreign data.
In the domestic scenario, the market reflected a battery of economic data.
The General Price Index – Market (IGP-M), considered “rent inflation”, accelerated more than expected by analysts in September, rising 0.62%, after having increased 0.29% in the month previous.
The unemployment rate was 6.6% in the three months up to August, slightly below the market consensus.
According to IBGE, the unemployment rate is the lowest for the quarters up to August in the entire historical series. Furthermore, the rate is the lowest since the quarter ended in December 2014.
Also in August, the country created 232,513 jobs, slightly lower than expected.
Abroad, new measures to stimulate China's economy reduced the strength of the dollar.
In yet another round of stimulus, the Central Bank of China (PBoC) announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio — the amount of money that banks must keep as reserves. This was the second reduction this year aimed at supporting economic growth.
Furthermore, China's pledge to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to achieve the 2024 economic growth target of approximately 5% has improved market expectations regarding further fiscal stimulus.
Emerging countries and commodity exporters, such as Brazil, were positively impacted by the increase in commodity prices, such as iron ore — which increased by more than 4% today.
Additionally, investors reacted to new economic data in the USA.
The Price Index (PCE) rose 0.1% in August. For the year, inflation has risen to 2.2% — close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The data came in slightly below expectations.
After the data, bets on a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November increased.
Os traders they now see a 56.7% chance that the US central bank will reduce interest rates to the range of 4.25% to 4.50% per year, according to the CME Group monitoring tool. Yesterday (26), this probability was 49.3%.
As a result, bets on a 25 basis point cut, which would place US interest rates in the range of 4.50% to 4.75% per year, fell from 50.7% (yesterday) to 43.3% today.
*With information from Reuters