In the last 12 months, the portfolio returned 15.7% against -1.8% for Ibovespa and 13.7% for the SMLL index; check out BTG's small caps (Image: Getty Images/Canva Pro)
O BTG Pactual made only 2 exchanges in your wallet with 10 small caps for the month of October. Therefore, PetroReconcavo (RECV3) e Santos Brazil (STBP3) gave way to GPS Group (GGPS3) e Serena (SRNA3).
The highlight is the Intelbras (INTB3), which has an upside potential of 89%. In the last 12 months, the portfolio returned 15.7% against a 1.8% drop in the Ibovespa and a 13.7% increase in the SMLL index.
In September, the portfolio appreciated by 2.8%, above the -3.1% of the Ibovespa and -3.3% of the SMLL index.
BTG's recommended Small Caps portfolio
| Enterprise | Ticker | High potential |
|---|---|---|
| GPS | GGPS3 | 34% |
| Fleury | FLRY3 | 17% |
| Marcopolo | POMO4 | 64% |
| Intelbras | INTB3 | 89% |
| Vivara | VIVA3 | 34% |
| Serena | SRNA3 | 72% |
| IRB | IRBR3 | 23% |
| Locaweb | LWSA3 | 67% |
| Desktop | DESK3 | 35% |
| Tent | TEND3 | 77% |
The Brazilian inspector: 'How bad is very bad', according to BTG Pactual
The growing concern about the issue fiscal no Brazil has increased the long-term real rate premium between the country and USA (USA). BTG Pactual classifies this risk as “very bad” and, in a recent report, says “how bad” the situation is.
The bank's analysts point out that, despite the fall in long-term rates in the US (to 1.6%), rates have been rising in Brazil. As a result, the premium between countries increased from 3.2% in October 2023 to 4.8% in September this year.
For Bruno Lima, Carlos Sequeira, Guilherme Guttilla and Osni Carfi, the movement arises from increased uncertainty regarding compliance with fiscal rules for 2025.
“The 2025 budget sent to Congress at the end of August is excessively dependent on uncertain revenue sources and no structural changes to expenditure have been announced,” they say.