Demand for ethanol is expected to reach 155 billion liters by 2033, according to the IEA
Reducing the use of fossil fuels is one of the main themes of COP29the Conference of the Parties on Climate Change, which will be held in November, in Baku, Azerbaijan. During the event, it is expected that the European Union (EU) pressure participating countries to reduce the use of fossil fuels, the most viable option for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Furthermore, COP29 should establish new targets for climate finance (NCQG), considering the needs of developing countries and the role of developed nations. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), the global demand for ethanol should reach 155 billion liters by 2033, and the biodiesel should reach 79 billion liters.
Currently, developed countries meet 55% of global demand for biofuelsbut this share is expected to fall to 49% in ten years, due to the growth of production in emerging countries, such as Brazil, India e Indonesia.
Ethanol, for example, has 59% of its global production derived from corn24% and sugar cane6% molasses, 2% wheatand the remaining 9% of varied grains, cassava and beetroot. Biodiesel comes mainly from vegetable oils (65%), such as palm oil, military and rapeseed, followed by 27% reused cooking oils and 8% non-edible oils and animal fat.
In Brazil, ethanol and biodiesel production totaled almost 43 billion liters in 2023, according to the Brazilian Statistical Yearbook of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels 2024, released by National Petroleum Agency (ANP). The country has 359 ethanol plants (with a production capacity of 31 million m3), 60 biodiesel plants (capacity of 6 million m3) and 6 biomethane facilities (capacity of 58 million m3).
In terms of growth, ethanol production rose 15.5%, reaching 35.4 billion liters. The production of anhydrous ethanol, mixed with gasoline at stations, increased by 13.5%, while that of hydrated ethanol, sold separately at the pump, grew by 16.8%. National production of biodiesel exceeded 7.5 billion liters, driven by the increase in the percentage of mandatory blending diesel to 12%, in force since April 2023. The biomethane recorded significant growth of 12.3% compared to the previous year, with a production of 74.9 million m³.
This growth in the total production of biofuels in Brazil, however, does not require the expansion of cultivation areas over other food crops, as the recovery of degraded areas and the increase in productivity per hectare can increase production to up to 69 billion liters annually (58 billion of ethanol and 11 billion of biodiesel).
To further expand productivity in the field of biofuels, innovations such as second generation ethanol (E2G) are being developed. With a carbon footprint 30% smaller than first generation ethanol (E1G), E2G, derived from lignocellulosic plant biomass, reuses plant waste such as straw, leaves, bagasse, chips, among others, increasing production by up to 50% without need to expand the planted area.
A Raízen (RAIZ4) already produces E2G on a commercial scale and continuously. The company's production potential in the coming years will be 2 billion liters of second generation ethanol, considering a total production of 4 billion liters of E1G. In addition to the E2G production unit in Piracicaba, the company already plans to build eight other production units.
Another promising innovation is macaúba, a native Brazilian palm tree with an oil productivity per hectare up to seven times greater than soybeans, in addition to releasing 80% less CO2 compared to fossil fuels. THE Acelen Renováveis has already announced an investment of R$12 billion in the construction of a biorefinery in Bahia to produce renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with an estimated production of 1 billion liters per year.
As a final highlight, Brazil reinforces its leadership role in the energy transition agenda by hosting COP30 in 2025, in Belém, for the first time. It is expected that the sustainability and energy efficiency agenda will gain even more momentum, with the adaptation of public policies to encourage new investments in the sector.