Despite the change in recommendation, the broker highlights that this does not constitute optimism with Gol. (Image: Facebook/GOL Linhas Aéreas)
O BB Investimentos raised the recommendation of Gol (GOLL4) to neutral after incorporating the most recent macroeconomic projections, the latest operational results and the strategic plan released by the airline.
Analyst Luan Calimério highlights in a report that Gol presented a five-year business plan to the market, supported by the investment program in engines to restore aircraft to operational conditions and fleet growth. In addition, the plan also includes the expansion of the airline network and an efficiency gain program.
“We draw the reader’s attention to the fact that the departure of Chapter 11 (process of judicial recovery in the United States) is a fundamental condition for the continuity of Gol's business (otherwise, the company could be liquidated). Therefore, despite the adverse scenario having a concrete probability, we consider the benign scenario (i.e., exit) in our model”, he states.
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With this, BB Investimentos presented a new target price of R$1.20 for the actions of the company until the end of 2025. This represents a appreciation potential of approximately 16%considering the closing of R$1.03 on Wednesday (2).
Despite the change in recommendation, the broker highlights that this does not constitute optimism regarding the company. But, rather, an assessment that, if the exit from Chapter 11 materializes and operational performance develops as expected, financial expenses will be alleviated and Gol's economic-financial performance will be balanced.
BB Investimentos projections for Gol
Calimério estimates raising US$2 billion in debt and US$1.5 billion in new shares by the end of 2025, which would be enough to settle the DIP (debtor in possession — a company that is under bankruptcy protection, generally in the context of Chapter 11).
In this way, it would be possible to refinance a relevant part of the company's debts and reinforce its cash position. This scenario represents the dilution of more than 95% of current shareholders.
On the economic-financial performance side, projections are for net revenue between R$18.3 and R$22.3 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR, in its acronym in English — this is the rate of return required for an investment to grow) of 9.04%.
EBITDA (Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) should be between R$4.3 and R$6.3 billion, with a CAGR of 11.8%; and net profit of R$875 and R$710 million, which would take the company to an EBITDA margin of 23%
e 28%.
The analyst also highlights that the aviation sector is highly sensitive to external factors, such as oil, the dollar and deliveries of new aircraft, which can be a risk and affect business continuity.