2 triggers that could make the stock market rise and 10 stocks to buy

It is true that the month of September was not easy for brazilian scholarship. Even with the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle in the United States – a trigger widely awaited by the market – the Ibovespa went against the rest of the world with the news and ended the month with remains -3.08%.

After all, what happened to the bag? The dream of “end of year rally” he finished?

In an interview with the program Market Turnproduced by Money Timesthe analyst Larissa Quaresma said that, if he had to choose a “culprit” for the negative performance of the index in the previous month, it would be the tax policy.

A concern of the market around the fiscal, which has been a recurring theme this year, grew in September due to the bimonthly report of the country's revenues and expenses. This is because the report frustrated expectations by not presenting the expected deep cuts.

Instead, the government increased the budget blockade by just R$2.1 billion and reversed a contingency previous amount of R$3.8 billion, resulting in a flexibility of R$1.7 billion. With extraordinary expenses of R$40.5 billion, the deficit projected for 2024 is worrying R$69 billionaccording to Quaresma.

On the other hand, the analyst stated that she does not think “it will be like this forever”. “Just maintaining the same perception as today, without further worsening, is already good,” he said. Furthermore, she did not rule out the possibility of a stock market rally still in 2024.

In the analyst's view, the events of September only made the stock market even cheaper and the outlook is constructive for the end of the year. “We started from a valuation very interesting”, he says.

But what is needed, then, for the stock market to “take off”? AND what shares to buy to be able to surf a possible resumption of the Ibovespa in October?

Next, you can see 2 triggers which, in Quaresma's opinion, can unlock the appreciation of the stock market, and 10 stocks she recommends invest this month.

2 triggers that could make Ibovespa go through a 'rally' by the end of this year

When asked about what triggers could lead the Ibovespa to go through a “rally” until the end of the year, Larissa is emphatic: “a decrease around the fiscal (break) is the main trigger for the stock market.”

Although the country's fiscal situation will most likely not be resolved, the analyst says that it is possible that we will see the government “running” to reach the target of 0.25% of GDP in this last quarter. “Especially after the municipal elections. At the end of October, November and December there may be a greater effort”, he said.

And any positive sign, no matter how small, could get the stock market moving again, according to the analyst. Mainly because we have a second trigger at stake, which is the continuity of benign data nos USA.

“The interest rate cut in the US continues to be great for emerging countries, as long as it does not indicate a recession,” he said. And everything indicates that the positive trend should continue:

“I personally am constructive. July and August were very good months, which showed us what a favorable exterior, with a neutral domestic environment – ​​which just doesn't get in the way – is capable of doing” – Larissa Quaresma, analyst at Empiricus

Furthermore, Quaresma highlights that we start from a very interesting valuation for the Brazilian stock market. “The multiple Price over Profit estimated for Ibovespa in 2025, even if we exclude Petrobras e Valeis at 9.5x, one standard deviation below the historical averagewhich is 11x to 12x”, he explains.

Thinking about all this, the analyst designed the strategy of your recommended portfolio for October. According to her, the rise in Selic increased her demands in relation to the return she seeks from companies, as well as the leverage level that they have.

Below, you can see which actions were selected by Quaresma for the month.

Itaú (ITUB4), Eletrobras (ELET6), Grupo SBF (SBFG3) and 7 more shares to buy in October

For October, the analyst highlights that she has a portfolio defensive and which prioritizes profitable companies and in a good moment of profit growth. Therefore, she states that she is exposing a large part of her portfolio to electrical sectorfor example.

“25% of the portfolio is in electricity. This is because this sector has a high demand less cyclicalthat is, these companies are less affected by the cycle of rising Selic rates, because everyone consumes energy”, he explains.

Furthermore, another reason for this exhibition is that we are in the 2nd consecutive month of red tariff flag. What tends to benefit companies in this sector, especially Eletrobras (ELET6)the analyst's main bet for October in this regard.

Another sector that has good exposure in Quaresma's stock portfolio is financialwith emphasis on the actions of the Itaú (ITUB4). “We are very confident that Itaú should slightly surpass the guidance this year,” he said.

Finally, the analyst also highlights that, to have a little sensitivity to interest rates, she also added some “peppers” to her portfolio. In other words, shares that tend to have greater appreciation potential, but which are also more risky, as is the case with the stock of Grupo SBF (SBFG3).

But of course, these are just some of Larissa's recommendations for the month of October. In addition to these, there are other 7 shares which she recommends to seek attractive returns on the Brazilian stock market this month.

These stocks were recommended in a free report, made available by Money Times as a courtesy. I.e, you don't need to pay anything – nor commit yourself in any way – to be able to access the material with all the instructions.

In this report, you will find the investment theses of each of the actions and the recommended weights to assemble a balanced portfolio and diverse.

To grant access, simply click on the link below and complete your registration. Then, an email with the full report will arrive in your inbox: